![]() In 20, for example, meteorologist Jan Null conducted an accuracy review of the "Old Farmer's Almanac," giving out "good," "bad" and "mixed" grades to the almanac's winter forecast based on how the projections compared to the actual weather outcome in each region of the U.S.Īccuracy: Almanac predicts chilly temps. Should you trust it? ![]() ![]() The Old Farmer's Almanac has traditionally claimed to have 80% accuracy, but research in recent years has suggested otherwise. These big picture weather predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, some weather experts say. Instead of comparing the upcoming winter with the previous one, the periodical measures against long-term normals for temperature, precipitation and snowfall using mathematical and astronomical formulations to make its predictions. The formula takes into account sunspot activity, tidal activity, planets' positions and "a variety of other factors," according to its website. What's everyone talking about?: Sign up for our trending newsletter to get the latest news of the day How does the Farmers' Almanac make its predictions?īoth the "Old Farmer's Almanac," which began in 1792, and the "Farmers' Almanac," which started in 1818, got their starts more than a century before satellite weather tracking became a practice. The Pacific Northwest will see about-normal winter precipitation, though the Southwest is forecasted to receive less-than-normal amounts.South Central states could see some snow accumulation, especially in early January.Much of the Southeast will see a mix of wet snow, sleet, ice, freezing rain and chilly temperatures.Here are a few highlights from other regions, according to the Farmers' Almanac: There will be a fair share of storms in the region, which means plenty of snow for winter enthusiasts – "maybe even in time for a white Christmas," the almanac editors wrote.ĭreaming of a white Christmas? Here's where history says your best chances are for seeing snow are The North Central region encompasses Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming. "The big takeaway for our winter season forecast," the periodical wrote, "is that frigid temperatures should flow into many areas nationwide – especially in the North Central region, where readers will certainly be shaking and shivering!" Specifically, the almanac, an annual American periodical in publication since 1818, is calling the North Central region a "hibernation zone, glacial, snow-filled." Yikes. These big picture weather predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, some weather experts say.ĭES MOINES - The Farmers' Almanac came out with its winter weather predictions across the U.S., and it's going to be – you guessed it – frigid.The forecast predicts the "first bite of winter" is expected to come earlier than last year's, with frigid temperatures especially hitting the North Central region.since 1818, has released its 2022-2023 winter forecast. The Farmers' Almanac, which has made weather predictions for the U.S.That's more in line with what's typically expected in La Niña winters. "We have no strong reason to favor a super-weak vortex like we had in winter 2020-21 at this time, and feel this winter be more like last winter," Crawford said.Ĭrawford's expectation for a stronger polar vortex this coming winter implies colder air will overall be bottled up in more northern latitudes. The impacts from the cold plunge resulted in a multi-billion disaster, with Texas especially hard-hit. In winter 2020-21, the polar vortex weakened, and even though La Niña was in place, a major cold outbreak contributed to the 19th-coldest February on record in the Lower 48. However, this ingredient in the forecast cannot be predicted until winter is in progress. Whether the polar vortex stays strong or weakens at some point in winter can definitely impact the forecast. The arrows point to the cooler than average water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, indicative of La Niña. Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from early Sept.
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